East Coast Commune | A Wholesome, Family-Friendly Cafe in Marine Cove (East Coast Park)
East Coast Commune | A Wholesome, Family-Friendly Cafe in Marine Cove (East Coast Park)
With new cafes constantly popping up in Singapore, we sometimes get caught up in visiting and trying out the new places and neglecting the ones that are good. We are glad to re-visit East Coast Commune as it celebrates its second anniversary with new menu items for brunch (available until 3pm), lunch (available from 11am) and all-day dining. We are also happy to find out that the cafe has extended its hours on weekends to include dinner service (6pm to 9pm) and are serving anniversary picnic sets too.
East Coast Commune occupies a 3000 sq ft area and its high ceiling, scandi-themed furnishings makes it an aesthetically pleasing place to be at. I am already planning my next trip back as I wanted to try more items from their menu but was limited by my stomach space this time. Perhaps I will make a visit in the evening to try out their dinner menu and am certainly eyeing their signature sourdough waffles with ice-cream for dessert.
Special mention to the little touches that we noticed during our visit to show how family-friendly the East Coast Commune is. Apart from having a play area for the kids to have fun whilst parents dine, there is also a nursing room and dedicated kids menu for the little ones. It’s a little wonder why the cafe was packed with families during our visit on the weekend!
Budget per person: $20 to $30 per person
Related Tags
How to leverage customer data for your restaurant
Restaurant owners have endless data at their fingertips from a variety of sources — point-of-sale (POS) systems, marketing platforms, inventory trackers and scheduling software, to name a few. But do you know how to use this data to your advantage?
While it might take some time to understand up front, data analytics can help position your business for long-term growth. By learning how to categorize, collect, and use customer information, you can improve your marketing and build stronger customer relationships.
What are the four types of restaurant customer data?
When you start working with customer data for your restaurant, the sheer volume of information can feel overwhelming. It’s helpful to break everything down into categories:
- Identitydata covers basic information about your diners, enabling you to find your key demographics and spot opportunities for audience expansion. It includes things such as a customer’s name, age, birthday, location, ethnicity, gender, phone number and email address. Depending on your restaurant’s goals, your database might also include information about the customer’s family. You can take identity data a step further to add socioeconomic information such as job title, industry and approximate income.
- Engagement data includes details about how, when and how often customers interact with your restaurant. You can collect this information from your POS system or the analytics that are connected to your website, social media platforms or email marketing program. Useful metrics include website traffic, marketing email open rate, behavioral flow, click-through rate and conversions.
- Behavioral data covers the different ways diners engage with your restaurant. It could include order history, average order value, participation in loyalty programs and use of delivery promotions. On a broader scale, this data can also incorporate things such as email newsletter sign-ups and unsubscribes, creating an account on your delivery system and engagement on different types of devices.
- Attitudinal data involves customers’ attitudes toward your restaurant. It helps you track the opinion of your brand across your diners, the public and specific segments of your audience. For restaurants, it might cover the performance of a menu item, customer reactions to a price or feedback about a seasonal dish. This information typically comes from customer surveys, comment cards, online reviews and complaints.
How to capture customer data
Data can help drive everything from marketing to menu design — but first, you have to collect it. There are many ways to capture data; some are automatic, while others require direct input from your customers.
If you’re new to data analysis, it’s often easiest to start with hands-off data-collection solutions. These systems run in the background, gathering information until you’re ready to use it. Popular options include Google Analytics, which gathers website data, and social media analytics to help you track how customers interact with your profiles and posts.
To collect delivery data, try Grubhub Direct, a service that lets you set up a commission-free online ordering website for your business. As soon as your customers start ordering through your Direct site, the system automatically captures details such as order history, average order, purchase frequency and contact information. Since you own the data, you can download it for free, engage with customers directly and build one-on-one relationships.
When your automatic systems are running, try asking your diners for direct feedback — individual reviews tell you exactly what customers think. Request reviews in person, mention it in your marketing emails and make the request via social media. If your restaurant is on the Grubhub platform, customers can leave feedback after every order. With Grubhub Premium, you can even respond to ratings and reviews to build trust and show you’re serious about creating the best experience possible.
You can also encourage reviews by creating a Google Business profile. Customers can upload photos, rate your restaurant and leave comments. The rating is visible when someone comes across your restaurant through a Google or Google Maps search; a high rating can boost engagement and bring in new diners. Make the most of your Business profile by:
The physical activity in your restaurant is another important data source. Capture information by tracking restaurant capacity and orders per hour. Then, use the data to improve operations. When you understand how order volume and dinner numbers fluctuate throughout the day and week, it’s easier to adjust staffing to meet the demand. Efficient scheduling keeps labor costs in check and ensures employees’ workloads are reasonable.
5 tips to take advantage of customer data
Now that you know how to capture customer data, the next step is to use the information to improve your restaurant operations – and ensure customer satisfaction.
1. Create a customer loyalty program
Loyalty programs can help you collect and use customer data. Diners must sign up to participate, so you can record their names, contact information and order history. As you start to create personal records for each customer, use the data to reward and encourage repeat business:
- Track order value and provide a discount coupon after customers spend a certain amount over time.
- Monitor order frequency gaps and use them to trigger an automated “we miss you” email.
- Work with your delivery platform to offer a deal after a certain number of orders.
Check out more strategies for creating a restaurant loyalty program that stands out.
2. Send targeted promotions
Customer data gives you the power to personalize your marketing efforts. If you’re tracking a customer’s orders, for example, it’s easy to identify the items they order frequently. With that information, you can recommend new menu items, create targeted upsell offers or send customized discount coupons for the diner’s favorite meal.
Order times can be helpful, too. If you know a specific customer often comes in for lunch on Friday at noon, you might schedule a marketing email for 10 am to encourage them to choose your restaurant over a competitor.
Data is particularly useful within your delivery system. Use it to suggest items customers might like, offer a special discount for a larger order, or provide a free item with the purchase of another item. Services such as Grubhub Premium make it easy to access both promotion and loyalty tools to increase exposure and maximize the benefit of customer data. For example, if a quesadilla is your most popular item, consider offering a 10% discount to motivate diners to add it to their cart. Learn more about how you can run promotions on Grubhub.
3. Establish contacts
Once you have a customer’s contact information, use it to create and maintain an open line of communication. Put diners’ email addresses into a mailing list, and send out regular newsletters to promote new specials and announce seasonal menus. To prompt people to come in or order delivery, provide exclusive discount codes or special deals. Depending on your target demographic, you can also send coupons in the mail.
Regular contact can boost business returns, but it also keeps your restaurant top of mind. It’s a good way to announce changes that affect customers as well — holiday hours or a new location, for example. When you’re consistent with the frequency and personality of marketing emails, they can help humanize your brand and make diners feel they’re part of a community.
If you need to start collecting email addresses, there are several ways to go about it without seeming pushy. The trick is to find an incentive that’s appealing enough to get guests to hand over their email. Offer a free dessert to people who join your mailing list, invite social media followers to enter a contest, or require an email to sign in to your restaurant’s Wi-Fi.
4. Show appreciation
Tracking individual data helps you understand your customers on a deeper level. In fact, you probably know more about them than their coworkers. Use that data to show your appreciation and build a positive, lasting relationship. Some options include:
- Send a birthday discount code.
- Include a surprise treat for repeat customers.
- Celebrate the sign-up anniversary for loyalty-program members.
- Host an exclusive tasting or thank-you dinner for loyal diners.
No matter how you show thanks, receiving a special discount or bonus can mean a lot to a customer. Take a look at more ways you can show your customers you appreciate their business.
5. Get social
Social media is critical for restaurants — customers use platforms such as Instagram and TikTok to research restaurants and find exciting new dishes. To make sure your posts are getting in front of the right people, analyze customer data to find out where your target customers spend time online.
Different demographics tend to use different platforms. If you want to reach younger people, consider building a presence on TikTok or Instagram. For an older audience, you might want to double down on your Facebook posting strategy. Then, use your profile to build connections:
- Post videos of new dishes or tempting desserts.
- Release food posts when customers are thinking about their next meal.
- Offer discounts for social media followers.
Check out more tips on how to make your social media pop.
Take control of your customer data with Grubhub
At Grubhub, we understand how data can be powerful for restaurants. We’ve looked into customer data and trends to help independent restaurants like you understand your diners. Dive into our Technomic report where we dig into current online ordering trends and tips for independent restaurants. Take a look at Grubhub’s #2022Delivered to get a look into customer’s ordering habits and cuisine preferences.
Customer data is one of the most valuable tools you have to market your restaurant. The right information enables you to personalize marketing, build relationships, and boost loyalty. If you’re ready to streamline your data collection and marketing for delivery customers, try Grubhub today.
Uluwatu Turns on the Nightlife
Uluwatu has become one of the major areas of Bali to holiday and live over the past few years. It has come alive with people from all parts of the planet, mainly surfers first, but now also people from all walks of life. There are contributing factors for this migration to the south, including beautiful white sand beaches, not so much rainfall, less traffic issues getting around, and nowadays, a plethora of new dining and entertainment options busy most days and nights of the week. Young people are turning their backs on places like Canggu or Seminyak and moving to the Bukit, and really, I can see why, the place has a lot going for it.
We asked rising star DJ Papū, who happens to be playing and living most weekends nowadays in the Uluwatu area, what he thought the best run-down would be to get among the good times on the weekend in that south west corner of Bali.
“Thursdays are all about cashew tree. They normally have great live music and the place is pumping.
Fridays. You can’t beat Tabu restaurant and bar, they have DJs (me included) and it’s busy. Ulu Cliffhouse always has a crowd and weekly house DJ nights till late. Half price selected drinks too. Recently opened Baracca has a bar/club vibe on Friday nights as well till late. Savaya day club on the south coast has hip hop or special events on Fridays.
Saturdays. Savaya is normally rammed with big international guest DJs (hip hop & electronic music). Get there about 5pm. Tabu has DJs and classy electronic music most Saturdays. There is a special event on the deck at Ulu Cliff most Saturdays, or if there is a big international act the main stage will be set up next to the pool.
Sundays. Single Fin is an institution in front of the Uluwatu surf break and has live music and DJs most nights of the week, but Sunday is when it really grinds. (Commercial house music). Savaya gets tribal with Southern Tribe (Afro house vibe) & international headliners.”
There are also a number of great dining options in the Uluwatu area too. What do you think are the better options Papū? “Ours, Rolling Fork (Italian), Suka (brunch & dinner), Tabu (dinner), newly opened Mason, Ulu Cliff, Lucky Fish (local fish BBQ on Bingin Beach), Yeye’s (best Nasi Campur), El Kabron (Spanish ).”
Hey Papū bro, thank you for your time and the words of local knowledge.
You can catch Papū playing his tunes in Tabu, Ulu Cliffhouse and Savaya, among other hot spots on the Bukit and down town, too.
Get in Uluwatu, folks. You’re sure to have a great time.
How to collaborate with micro influencers to grow restaurant sales
Social media can have a big impact on users’ food choices — scroll through Instagram food posts on an empty stomach and you’ll experience the effect for yourself. The power of social media suggestion is so strong, in fact, that it’s a cornerstone of many restaurants’ marketing strategies. One study found that 53% of millennials have eaten or ordered from restaurants after coming across them on TikTok. Social media has a direct influence on diners.
If you run a restaurant, now’s the time to go all in on social media. As you expand your online presence, working with micro-influencers is one way to quickly build a bigger audience and maximize your marketing budget.
What are micro influencers?
A micro influencer is a person who has a small, highly targeted social media following — typically, between 1,000 and 50,000 followers. These influencers build an audience by posting about a specific topic, offering opinions and sharing products or locations.
In the food industry, micro-influencers are often called food bloggers or food influencers. They usually focus on cooking, specific cuisines, outrageous dishes or restaurant reviews. Some people review different desserts, for example, while others focus on the best restaurants in a specific city or region.
The power of the micro influencer lies in the name: influence. Followers value the person’s opinions, perspectives or style. If the influencer shares a positive opinion of a product or a restaurant, it can affect consumer decision-making and result in a surge of sales for the business.
Influencing is such a powerful driver for sales, in fact, that brands regularly drop tens of thousands of dollars on sponsored posts. As a result, successful food influencers have gained millions of followers and six-figure incomes.
If your restaurant’s marketing budget is smaller, you can still integrate a similar strategy — that’s where micro influencers come in. Because they have smaller followings, these online personalities tend to be more affordable, available and flexible. Their audiences are often more loyal and engaged, which can result in a higher ROI.
Of course, paid posts aren’t the only way to get exposure from influencers. They often come to your restaurants and mention your food without being asked. To keep tabs on what people are saying about your restaurant, it’s critical to build a social media presence and monitor brand mentions.
Why partner with food bloggers?
Influencing is the modern version of word-of-mouth advertising. When you partner with food bloggers, you can leverage their network to build brand awareness for your restaurant. Since the review or recommendation is coming from a trusted source, followers may be more receptive to the message.
While you can reach new audiences through your own social media, food bloggers speed up the process. With a single post, you can reach a broad group of people who are already interested in what you have to offer — no targeted advertising required. Influencer marketing fits neatly into your existing social media strategy by driving traffic to your business website, profiles and online ordering platforms.
3 tips to successfully collaborate with food bloggers
Collaborating with food bloggers and micro-influencers can be an effective way to increase your restaurant’s social media reach and engagement. Foodie influencers live and breathe social media, so they understand exactly how to capture their followers’ attention and convince them to buy.
Authenticity is critical — audiences can spot an insincere money grab a mile away. To get the most from a partnership, it’s important to find the right blogger for your brand. Food influencer marketing is most effective when restaurants and influencers feel like a natural, organic match.
1. Build your restaurant’s social media presence
The best way to find food influencers is to meet them where they are — on social media. Before you reach out to bloggers, take time to build a robust and attention-grabbing digital presence. At a minimum, you should have:
Regular posts attract new customers, but they also show influencers you’re online and active. After all, exposure goes both ways; bloggers rely on you to share their posts to form a collaboration.
If you already have an established online presence, take engagement to the next level. Encourage your followers to comment by asking questions, hosting contests, or seeking input about new menu items. Give people (and bloggers) a reason to stop in by posting about specials and followers-only deals. When someone comments, respond; it’s a fun way to humanize the brand and attract influencers who want to work with people rather than a faceless corporation.
Keep in mind that some influencers will order delivery before writing a review. Don’t forget to include a link to your online ordering platform. Convenience matters — if your existing system doesn’t provide a fast, seamless experience, switch to Grubhub Direct to create a branded, commission-free website ordering at no additional cost.
2. Follow trending hashtags and accounts
Social media is all about the trends. To find top influencers, keep an eye out for trending hashtags that food bloggers use to connect with followers. Follow the hashtags to find relevant accounts and engage in the latest discussions. Look for posts with plenty of thoughtful comments; they indicate the audience is highly engaged.
Start with popular restaurant-related tags:
- #Foodie
- #FoodBlogger
- #Foodstagram
- #FoodPhotography
- #GoodEats
- #RestaurantPhotography
If you have an independent restaurant, find micro-influencers by refining your hashtag search with niche terms. For example, if you run a restaurant in Chicago, you could follow #ChicagoRestaurants, #ChicagoFoodie or #ChicagoEats. Do you focus on a specific cuisine? Try hashtags such as #ThaiFood, #PastaLover, #HealthyEats or #ChicagoVegans.
While you’re exploring hashtags, you’ll probably come across accounts that feature restaurants in your city or genre. Follow them and note when they share posts from local bloggers; it’s a great way to spot micro-influencers in your area.
3. Reach out to influencers directly
As soon as you find an influencer who seems like a good match for your restaurant, reach out directly. Request a collaboration, and explain a little bit about your restaurant’s story and vibe. Your message should also explain:
- What you’re looking for: You might want a restaurant review or a menu promotion, for example.
- What you’re offering in return: Few people are willing to work for free. At a minimum, you should offer a free meal or a discount. If you want to work with popular influencers, be prepared to pay.
Don’t be afraid to start with small, local influencers — people with highly relevant, active audiences that can bring big returns for your business. They also receive fewer offers, so you can often start a partnership on a budget. When you’re reaching out to someone with 10,000 or more followers, get in touch by email. People with large audiences get hundreds of DMs, so email is a good way to ensure your message doesn’t get lost in the shuffle.
How to prepare for a food influencer’s visit
Preparation is the key to a successful blogger collaboration. To get ready, follow these steps:
- Choose a good time: Suggest a time when the restaurant is busy but not completely full. The bloggers can get a sense of the vibe, and the staff will have time to provide plenty of attention.
- Focus on presentation: Make sure your table settings, plating, and presentation are top-notch and ready to shine in the influencer’s photos. Consider seating the blogger near a window; the natural light will help the food look its best.
- Agree on a menu in advance: Work with the influencer before the visit and decide whether they’ll be trying a specific dish, selecting from a tasting menu or ordering off the regular menu.
- Prep your staff: Ask servers to be prompt and courteous but not overbearing, and suggest the owners stop by the table to say hello. End the visit on a positive note by thanking the influencer and inviting them back.
Give influencers a reason to celebrate with food holidays
Influencers are always looking for new trends to inspire content. In the restaurant industry, food holidays — days that celebrate a specific food or cuisine — are the perfect fit. Get in on the fun by inviting local influencers to post about your restaurant on a relevant holiday; find a full list on the National Food Holiday calendar. Sweeten the deal by giving them a special discount to include in the post. On National Donut Day, you might host a $1 donut promotion or hand one out for free to every diner.
Your cuisine is a click away with Grubhub
To get the most from your influencer marketing campaign, it’s important to give viewers an easy way to order. That’s where Grubhub Direct comes in. Include your Direct link in your social media profile and the influencer’s post and customers can order while your restaurant is top of mind. To get started and put your restaurant in front of more customers, join Grubhub today.
Contingency planning essential says NZ Events Association –
The New Zealand Events Association (NZEA) says the cancellation of multiple events at short notice is heartbreaking for organizers and concertgoers alike, but says it is a timely reminder of the necessity for emergency contingency plans.
“Just when things seemed to be getting back to normal for the events industry, it started raining and hasn’t stopped,” says Elaine Linnell, General Manager, NZEA.
“It’s devastating for all our members as the cancellation of major events has a knock-on effect which is hitting hard. It also demonstrates the necessity for emergency plans – after all, this is New Zealand and the unexpected can occur at any time thanks to Mother Nature.”
“Deciding on a cancellation is always difficult and takes into account multiple considerations including loss of revenue, disruption to travel plans and other arrangements for ticket holders, difficulty in communicating clearly with all stakeholders, including suppliers, and potential reputational damage (which can result if the event goes ahead in bad weather or is canceled, and the weather reflects).”
But the one overriding concern is the safety of everyone concerned. “Cancellations are always a minefield and it’s upsetting for everyone,” Linnell says. “That’s why having a plan is essential, whether you’re organizing Elton John, or running the local Jazz in the Park.”
The NZEA’s top tips include:
1. have a plan
Always plan for the possibility of cancellation or postponement. If the weather changes, you’ll be ready to communicate effectively with vendors, suppliers, ticket holders and even transport providers. Health and safety is paramount, and communicating plans early helps everyone understand what needs to happen. Working together is key; arrange an alternate date ahead of the planned fixture if possible, and include venues, talent, and suppliers in the planning for the second calendar entry.
2. Get insured
Loss of profits is among the biggest concerns with event cancellations or postponements. A lot of work goes into every event, and delaying or stopping the show is a huge waste of effort. An insurance policy provides some peace of mind, with several companies available to cover your event. Organize well in advance of your fixture.
3. Communication is key (from start, to finish, with everyone)
Well ahead of your event, be sure to include cancellation clauses in all vendor/supplier/talent contracts so everyone knows what to expect. If a cancellation is necessary, prompt and efficient communication across your supply chains is just as important as fast and efficient communication with your ticket holders.
Update your website and social media platforms, send emails and/or text messages, and send push notifications on the event app (if applicable). Get everyone on board with a consistent message: your talent, suppliers and vendors will get the word out. Answer their questions and be specific. People want reasons for cancellation or postponement, they want to know about refunds, and they want information about new dates, times and venues.
4. Provide clear reasons for cancellation or postponement
Before sending any messages, clarify why the event isn’t going ahead. Severe weather is a safety hazard; wind and flooding can compromise the venue, interrupt transport, and crowd control can become difficult or impossible. Explain ‘why’ concisely so everyone understands the necessity for action with safety as the top priority.
5. Reflect and assess
Regardless of whether the cancellation or postponement went well or not, take the opportunity to evaluate your response. Determine what went right and why with the same vigour as assessing what went wrong. Use it as a learning experience; we can’t prevent natural disasters or significant weather events, but we can change how we respond to them. Include suppliers and vendors in your assessment, and even consider reaching out to ticketholders with a follow-up survey. Your customers have views and expectations, understanding them is important to help create a better customer experience, even if the weather has ruined the fun.
“Planning ahead is the name of the game,” says Linnell. “Nobody wants to see an event canceled, but we all want to get home safely and we all have to accept that we live in an unpredictable world. Bad things do happen, but that’s how we deal with them that determines our success.”
CBRE Forecasts Enhanced RevPAR Growth in 2023 Despite Economic Headwinds
Written by: Rachael Rothman and Matt Mowell
Despite projections of persistent inflation and a moderate economic recession, CBRE’s November 2022 Hotel Horizons® forecast calls for a 5.8 percent increase in rooms revenue per available room (RevPAR) in 2023. This is up from CBRE’s previous forecast of a 5.6 percent increase in RevPAR for 2023.
Propelling CBRE’s increased outlook for RevPAR is an expected 4.2 percent rise in average daily rate (ADR), driven in part by the continuation of above long-run average inflation. For 2023, CBRE is forecasting the Consumer Price Index in the US to increase by 3.5 percent YoY. Inflation continues to have a mixed impact on the hotel industry, bolstering top-line growth while pressing margins.
Supply and Demand
Inflation is also impacting development activity. The combination of rising construction material costs, a tight labor market, and high interest rates will serve to keep supply growth over the next five years 40 percent lower than historical trends. Instead of construction, we expect cash flows in the near term to be focused on debt reductions, renovations and renovations given the backlog of Capex that built up during the pandemic.
Given its forecast for a 0.2 percent decline in 2023 gross domestic product (GDP), CBRE lowered its expectations for demand growth from 3.3 percent in their August 2022 forecasts to 2.9 percent in the November update. With the projected supply increase remaining at 1.2 percent for 2023, the net result is a reduction in CBRE’s occupancy growth estimate for the year to 1.6 percent, down from the 2.0 percent increase previously forecast. The lowering of occupancy expectations will somewhat offset the enhanced outlook for ADR growth.
It is worth noting that the 5.8 percent RevPAR growth forecast for 2023 is front-end loaded, particularly in the first quarter of the year given the easy comparisons created by the outbreak of the Omicron variant in early 2022. Our RevPAR forecast for the first quarter of 2023 calls for a 15.6 percent gain, followed by 2-4 percent growth over the balance of the year.
Chain Scales
By the end of 2023, CBRE forecasts all chain scales to have surpassed their respective 2019 RevPAR levels. Economy and midscale hotels recovered to 2019 levels in 2021. Closures, higher rents and displacements from shelters will continue to shift people from homes and apartments to lower-priced hotels offering weekly and monthly rates.
Luxury and upper-upscale properties have lagged in recovery because of their dependence on individual corporate and group demands. Hotels that operate in these segments will not achieve RevPAR recovery until the end of 2023.
Markets
CBRE prepares Hotel Horizons® forecasts for 65 of the largest markets in the US By year-end 2023, 53 of the 65 Horizons® markets are expected to have reached, or surpassed, their 2019 RevPAR levels. That leaves 12 more to recover in 2024 or beyond. The majority of markets lagging in recovery are in northern California, the upper-Midwest, and along the northeast corridor from Washington, DC through New York.
At the other end of the spectrum, the leisure-centric destinations of Savannah, Miami, St. Petersburg and the Coachella Valley in California are forecast to exceed their 2019 RevPAR levels by more than 20 percent in 2023.
The Economy
CBRE’s Hotel Horizons® forecasts are based on economic assumptions prepared by CBRE Econometric Advisors (CBRE EA). As of October 2022, the CBRE EA is expected to be the following for the US economy in 2023.
A Recession
CBRE EA anticipates that a moderate recession will last through the first half of 2023 for the following reasons:
- The key trigger of this downturn is the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes delivering its intended effects.
- Higher household debt costs are weighing on consumption of big-ticket items, such as housing and reportedly autos.
- A strong USD will impede exports.
- Higher corporate cost of capital is forcing firms to shelve expansion plans and layoff announcements are increasing. This will soften the labor market via a falling job opening rate in the near term, and the unemployment rate should increase to 5 percent by 2024.
Inflation
The pace of annual inflation is likely to peak during the summer of 2022. Moving into autumn, easing commodity and consumer goods prices are weighing on CPI. The largest component of CPI—housing—is also peaking. Some monthly data points suggest that both rental and for-sale prices are falling. Nevertheless, the Fed remains vigilant about rising services costs and the prospect of embedded inflation. This should keep the Fed Funds Rate trending upward through mid-2023 and peaking north of 4.5%. Indeed, this outlook is predicated upon decelerating inflation to 3.5 percent by year-end 2023. It is entirely plausible that inflation could remain stubbornly high, which would trigger a stronger response from the Fed and a more painful recession.
It should be noted that the CBRE lodging forecasts presented in this article do not contemplate a global war, a pervasive recession or a more acute COVID variant.
This article was originally published in the January 2023 edition of Lodging and has been shared on HFTP Connect for the benefit of HFTP hotel finance members.
Rachael Rothman is head of CBRE Hotels Research and Data Analytics. Matt Mowell is senior economist at CBRE Econometric Advisors. To obtain CBRE’s Hotel Horizons® forecast reports, please visit pip.cbrehotels.com/hotelhorizons. This article was published in the January 2023 edition of Lodging.
Hospitality Business Leader’s Forum 2023:
Bring back hospitality
By Mayor of Auckland, Wayne Brown
Thank you for inviting me to contribute to the Hospitality Business magazine Leader’s Forum. Hospitality is my third biggest spend, after taxes and rates, and I have invested in this industry, so I’m probably a good person to listen to.
Studies have shown that 68% of all lost business results from the indifferent, uncaring attitudes of employees towards customers.
I cannot tell you the number of times I’ve entered a restaurant and stood there, being ignored by staff who don’t appear to be busy or told that a half-empty dining room is fully booked. It’s almost a weekly occurrence.
We need to put the hospitality back in this industry.
Every customer who comes through the door is an opportunity for repeat business – they’re going to spend more, more often, and promote your business to others. Where’s the friendly, generous reception for your customers, and your staff?
Staffing is a real problem, but the industry’s skills gap – compounded by COVID-19, closed international borders, and fewer graduates from hospitality and tourism schools – can’t be solved through immigration alone.
My view is, if you want something done properly, you might have to do it yourself.
In a survey of 396 hospitality workers, Voices from the Front Line, 81% stated they received no training in their jobs. If you want to keep people, you have to train them and pay them. If you pay the least, you’re going to lose people to your competitors eventually.
It’s important to understand the industry you’re in, and your business has to be competitive. Know your customers and your competitors, and offer superior quality, superior value, or something different – and don’t stand still.
Plenty of people changed their business model or product offering during COVID-19 and continued to trade well. It’s pretty simple, but it’s never easy, and I applaud those of you whose businesses have emerged stronger and competitive. There is something to be learned here.
If we look at Auckland’s inner-city, a recent resident’ survey shows the main reason people like living in the city center is access to shops and restaurants (63%), and the main reason to dislike living in the city center is that people do not feel safe (45%).
Safety issues, anti-social behavior, violence, and crime had a real impact on retail and hospitality post-COVID, and all agencies must work together effectively with businesses to address these problems.
As an interim solution, I want to see more police on the streets, and I urge business associations like the Heart of the City to spend any excess funds on regular security patrols. It’s free to become a member of your local business association because they’re funded by a targeted rate on local business rate payers, so make sure you join.
Spending money on security is a better bet than spending money on events to attract customers in the current environment, because they won’t stick around or come back if they don’t feel safe.
We also need to think about long-term practical measures to bring people back to inner-city Auckland, such as making it easier to convert empty office spaces into much-needed residential housing.
More people mean busier, safer streets, and thriving businesses.
Bali New Settlers – What’s Next?
The traffic is next level nowadays.
I reside on the north side of The Great Wall of Canggu. This means every day by 2pm the only way in and out of Canggu, or at least Berawa, are congesting more than a wet market attendant’s nose in Beijing, no way in or out. If you are in a car forget it. Abandon ship ASAP. You’re better off walking except you are likely to be hit by some crazed motorbike rider most probably high on something trying to escape the reality of the new Bali traffic. Some days it’s not so bad—you can fly through the wall without even stopping, but they are few and you have to give thanks for such moments.
During Covid it was different. I used to pop the dogs in the back of the old Kijang and trundle off to Double Six Beach without a care and the wind in my hair. It would take 15 to 20 minutes from Berawa, unless there was a hold up in front of Monsieur Spoon or somewhere with some random uber-large Jakarta plated Alpha trying to park. That could hold you back enough time to go in and buy a croissant. The beach was like some deserted island without a person, umbrella or day bed in sight. Just the sound of the cracking waves as they broke on the pristine white sand.
Fast forward to now. It does make you wonder where all the traffic comes from nowadays. I read that international tourist numbers are running at about 40% of pre-covid numbers. The Chinese aren’t even back. Obviously, there are many local domestic tourists continually arriving (with their cars), but there are no concrete figures on that hand. Possibly there is another answer for this traffic/jam phenomenon and that could be that half the people arriving here aren’t going home again. Are they coming here with one-way tickets and setting up shop? It makes you wonder.
All that time to think about life, or the lack of it, during lockdown in some god-forsaken part of the world looking at pretty pictures of this tropical island on Instagram may have done it. “That’s it, I’m outta here!” is heard as a collective rush or stampede for the gate at airports around the world heralded the beginning of the re-opening of the world – and an opportunity to get away once and for good. The central government has also made it easier for prospective new settlers too with a new 10 year second home visa proposed to open the flood gates even wider come the New Year.
But as another restaurant, bar, store or beach club opens one can only wonder, first, who is going to staff these new fashionable places that are literally opening every week because there aren’t any staff left on the island, and then, who is going to visit them. It’s hard to say. Maybe the new settlers will feed each other’s new venues to keep them alive. But the reality is probably most of them will be gone in the next couple of moons and only the strongest will survive – as usual.
Or maybe not, maybe it all just gets bigger and bigger with more people arriving every day to feed all these new businesses. But then that brings us back to the traffic and lack of new roads to cater to more vehicles and people. #rollyoureyes
These are interesting times on the island and it will be very interesting to see what will happen over the next year. For good or bad, there is no stopping it. Suggestions. Doing your moving around town early in the day, or late at night is a good way forward.